| Game Theory Approach - Investment in the Afterlife | 25 October 2002 |
Objective
Method/Basis
Premises/Assumptions
• Christianity
• Islamism
• Buddhism
• Taoism
• Hinduism
• Atheism
• There is only one true God, and He exists as a divine Trinity
• There is Heaven and Hell after death and judgement
• Entry into Heaven is through salvation alone - grace bestowed through belief in Christ Jesus, the Son of God
3. Buddhism hereafter mentioned refers to a collection of different branches of thought, including Theravada Buddhism[1], Mahayana Buddhism[2], and Zen Buddhism, which is a branch of Mahayana Buddhism developed in China and Japan.
4. For the purpose of evaluation, one religion is considered to be true at a time, with the others being false. This is fairly justifiable as some religions and systems of belief are mutually exclusive and cannot co-exist (to be true at the same time) for instance, Christianity and Islamism each claims that other religions are false (monotheism), and atheism considered as true automatically denies the existence of any other religion.
5. The positive and negative consequences experienced in the afterlife are the main source of utility considered. This assumes that a person's nett utility gained whilst living is approximately equal regardless of what religion or system of belief he follows. This is reasonably justified as different religions in general all promise peace of mind, divine blessings and etc, and also advocate the doing of good deeds. Atheists do not receive such utility, but they also do not incur opportunity costs such as time spent in religious worship, money donated or tithed and etc, and thus the assumption made - that any religion or system of belief yields approximately equal overall nett utility for a person whilst he is alive.
Observations
Truth\Belief Christianity Islamism Buddhism Taoism Hinduism Atheism Christianity Enter Heaven for eternity Enter Hell for eternity Enter Hell for eternity Enter Hell for eternity Enter Hell for eternity Enter Hell for eternity Islamism Eternal Punishment Enter Paradise depending on certain factors Eternal Punishment Eternal Punishment Eternal Punishment Eternal Punishment Buddhism Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Nirvana[3] Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Nirvana Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Nirvana Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Nirvana Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Nirvana Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Nirvana Taoism Not salvific, so death has no meaning Not salvific, so death has no meaning Not salvific, so death has no meaning Not salvific, so death has no meaning Not salvific, so death has no meaning Not salvific, so death has no meaning Hinduism Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Moksha[4] Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Moksha Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Moksha Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Moksha Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Moksha Rebirth until enlightenment, reaching Moksha Atheism No gain, no loss. No afterlife to speak of anyway No gain, no loss. No afterlife to speak of anyway No gain, no loss. No afterlife to speak of anyway No gain, no loss. No afterlife to speak of anyway No gain, no loss. No afterlife to speak of anyway No gain, no loss. No afterlife to speak of anyway Table 1 – Truth/Belief Consequences
1. The soul goes into Heaven or Hell. The means to enter either place (or state) is subject to the religious beliefs of different religions.
2. The soul undergoes rebirth. A soul is born again and again, and can be reborn as humans or other lifeforms, subject to the religious beliefs of different religions. The eventual destination is enlightenment and thereby reaching some form of higher state, when a soul becomes one with divinity, or becomes divinity.
3. There is either no soul, or the soul merely expires. Death is the ultimate end.
Discussion
From the 3 broad categories listed in the previous section, it now becomes possible to weigh the consequences, and proceed by elimination to select the most rational choice of belief.
1. Death is the ultimate end.
If this faction of thought or belief turns out to be true, nobody gains or loses anything, including those who believe similarly and even those who do not. Drawing an analogy to gambling, would a person place a wager on something that yields no possible reward?
It would appear as a more rational choice to place a wager on something else (another belief), because if the person is wrong, and death is the ultimate end, then everyone merely dies. But if that person places his wager elsewhere, and he turns out to have made the correct choice, then he stands to gain much more, be it Nirvana, Moksha, Heaven or Paradise.
2. Rebirth is the means to an ultimate end.
If this faction of thought or belief turns out to be true, nobody loses anything. Those who stand to gain are those who have reached enlightenment whilst living. Essentially, if the cycle of rebirth is true, then even if a person chose the wrong belief, he will still have a second chance. In fact, a person has approximately infinite chances to reach the state of enlightenment, since there is no known restriction on number of rebirths. Using the analogy of gambling again, this is the equivalent of allowing a person to take his money back, should his wager falls through, and letting him bet on something else on the next round.
It would appear, again, a more rational choice to place a wager on something else (another belief), because if the person is wrong, he undergoes rebirth like everyone else (everyone who is not yet enlightened, that is). Therefore the main benefit of choosing a religion affiliated to this belief is the possibility of reaching enlightenment one lifetime sooner. But if that person places his wager elsewhere in a monotheist religion (Christianity or Islamism), and he turns out to have made the correct choice, then he stands to gain much more, either Heaven or Paradise.
3. Heaven/Paradise versus Hell as the ultimate end.If this faction of thought or belief turns out to be true, then the consequences are much heavier for both correct or incorrect choices. Basically for this faction, we consider the monotheist religions Christianity and Islamism, and as both claim that no other god exists and essentially belief in any other faith leads to death, punishment or hell (here used interchangeably), a person stands to either gain Heaven/Paradise or risk eternal damnation in Hell. Using the analogy of gambling, this would be the equivalent of show-hand, which is to bet everything a person has on a single wager. You either win everything or lose it all.
It would seem more rational to place a wager on either Christianity or Islamism, because a wrong choice, with either faction 1 or 2 being correct, leads to either expiration or rebirth. The former is a no-win, no-loss situation and the latter offers a second chance. However, a right choice will allow a person to enjoy eternity in Heaven or Paradise, while others will land up in Hell or eternal punishment. The risk is larger here, but the margin of earning with a right bet is much higher than the other options, as it involves either eternity of reward or eternity of punishment. Even if a small positive value is associated with the utility of reward and a small negative value is associated with the utility of punishment, with a time multiplier of eternity, the utility of Heaven is still positive infinity while that of Hell is negative infinity.
Christianity
In Christianity, the main requisite for salvation is the faith to believe in Jesus Christ being the Son of God and that He died for the sins, and Original Sin[5] of mankind and God raised Him from the dead on the third day, and the subsequent verbal confession (typically known as the sinners' prayer).
“If you confess with your mouth, 'Jesus is Lord', and believe in your heart that God raised Him from the dead, you will be saved. For it is with your heart that you believe and are justified, and it is with your mouth that you confess and are saved…For there is no difference between Jew and Gentile - the same Lord is Lord of all and richly blesses all who call on him, for, 'Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord will be saved.'”
Romans 10:9-10, 12-13
“If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just and will forgive us our sins and purify us from all unrighteousness.”
1 John 1:9
Islamism
In Islam there is no Original Sin, and no need for the Cross. Redemption is more or less self-wrought as good deeds cancel bad deeds, and therefore good works become an important credential for entry into Paradise.
"For those things that are good remove those that are evil."
Surah 11:114
However, Allah, the all powerful, retains the supreme authority to punish or to forgive whomever He pleaseth, whenever He pleaseth.
"He (Allah) forgiveth whom He pleaseth, and punisheth whom He pleaseth, for God has power over all things."
Surah 2:284
The only complete assurance a Muslim has of going to Paradise is through fighting for the cause of spreading Islam (Jihad), and being martyred in the process.
"And if you are slain, or die in the way of Allah, forgiveness and mercy from Allah are far better than all they could amass."
Surah 3:157
The final cut
Therefore the final factors to eliminate one last religion fall to the following, in summary:
1. Salvation
Although in both religions entry into Heaven/Paradise depends on salvation, the concept of salvation itself is different.
Christianity requires a person to believe that Jesus Christ the Son of God came and died for the sins and Sin of mankind. The underlying premise is that no man can make it to Heaven on his own. The only means of salvation is through faith in Jesus Christ alone.
For Islamism, there exists no such redemptive work in their belief. Therefore a person has to strive to perform more good deeds than bad deeds, and the main guarantee of entry into Paradise is martyrdom whilst spreading the Islamic faith.
2. Divine Mercy
The God of the Christian faith is a “faithful and just” God (refer to previous page for scriptural reference) who forgives sins upon confession. This places an implicit degree of certainty in receiving forgiveness for salvation.
The God of the Islamic faith has no apparent definite basis of rendering mercy, forgiving or punishing those He pleases as He pleases. This places an implicit degree of uncertainty in receiving forgiveness for salvation.
Therefore, all things considered, if the basic premise of salvation of either religion is fulfilled (faith in Jesus Christ for Christianity and accumulation of good deeds over bad deeds for Islamism), there is still a higher probability that a Christian will make it to Heaven because of God's consistent mercy, justice and faithfulness than a Muslim making it to Paradise because of Allah’s latent whimsical nature in showing mercy.
Conclusion
After processing through the various religions and systems of belief, an approach of elimination is made possible. Considering the three broad categories of belief for the afterlife, religions and systems of belief believing in death being the ultimate end are first eliminated, as there is neither reward nor loss for a right or wrong choice. Those believing in cycles of rebirth till enlightenment are next eliminated, as there is theoretically no loss for a right or wrong choice since rebirth in its nature yields a person a second chance in the subsequent life. Therefore this can be considered as delayed fulfilment should the religion or system of belief actually be true. Both are eliminated also mainly because the potential reward and penalty for the religions believing in Heaven/Paradise and Hell/eternal punishment is significantly higher.
The final elimination favours Christianity over Islamism merely because the former offers a higher degree of certainty (or probability) of entry into Heaven than the latter's probability of entry into Paradise, due to the different inherent nature of the supreme divinity of either religion.
Therefore a rational conclusion would be that, in view of the significantly higher utility of entering Heaven, and the higher odds of entry compared to its next closest contender, Christianity is the most rational choice, or the safest wager, for the afterlife.
[1]
The Theravada Buddhists believe that Buddha was only a man and by becoming a
monk and following his example and teachings one can achieve enlightenment
[2]
The Mahayana Buddhists believe in order to achieve enlightenment it is not
necessary to become a monk but depends on good deeds performed during one's
lifetime
[3]
Once
fully enlightened, one is liberated from rebirths, reaching a state of
absolute selflessness resulting in ultimate bliss called Nirvana-the
"Deathless State." One becomes Buddha (or one with Buddha).
[4] Through laws of karma, one's soul is reborn until enlightened and liberated from rebirth, and one enters a state of ultimate bliss (Moksha), becoming one with the ultimate truth and reality, God, Brahman.
[5]
Original Sin refers to the sin inherited by all mankind through Adam and Eve
when they first disobeyed God and ate of the forbidden fruit. Refer to the
Old Testament, the book of Genesis, Chapter 3.
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